Trading webinars this August from InterTrader.com

This summer InterTrader.com continue their popular webinar programme which covers all aspects of spread betting and online trading from beginner to professional.  Our informative educational webinars are complemented by our live trading sessions where your host and professional trader Steve Ruffley interprets the figures as they are released and trades live during the session talking through the market movements.

Dates for the webinars in August:

·         Thursday 04/08/2011, 8.00pm -  Introduction to Financial Spread Betting

·         Friday 05/08/2011, 1.00pm - Live Trading Session: Non Farm Payroll

·         Tuesday 09/08/2011, 12.30pm - Introduction to Technical Analysis

·         Thursday 11/08/2011, 8.00pm - Trading the News

·         Friday 12/08/2011, 1.00pm - Live Trading Session: US Retail Sales

·         Tuesday 16/08/2011, 12.30pm - Channel Trading

·         Thursday 18/08/2011, 8.00pm - Introduction to the energy markets & Oil Trading

·         Tuesday 23/08/2011, 12.30pm - Trading Psychology

·         Tuesday 23/08/2011, 8.00pm - Poker player to Financial trader

·         Thursday 25/08/2011, 8.00pm - Money Management

·         Tuesday 30/08/2011, 12.30pm - Trading in Probabilities

To register for any of these events, please go to https://intertrader.omnovia.com/webcasts

https://intertrader.omnovia.com/webcasts

The webinars will be hosted by Steve Ruffley who is a career trader with over 7 year’s experience within the trading arena. He began his career with PWC on their IFA graduate scheme. He then went on to become a professional Intra-day trader with Marex and then a self-backed trader at Schneider’s; he also has experience with risk managing a large floor of traders at Refco.

Spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk and you can lose more than your initial deposit so you should ensure these trading products meet your investment objectives and if necessary seek independent advice.

A sigh of Relief

Dean Peters-Wright

Senior Analyst

fxKnight.com

Although Europe is not out of the woods yet, at least there is some consensus about the navigation in which to get there. The markets have been rallying this morning with the news that authorities have finally come to an agreement in how best to deal with the Greek crises satisfying previous concerns. Even the bonds markets have been celebrating as yields have fallen throughout the Eurozone including Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Greece. The Greek 2 year bond yield in particular has dropped to 27 per cent and although still significantly high, this is a decrease from a high of around 39 per cent at the start of the week.

There have been significant compromises most notably by the ECB who have conceded on accepting Greek collateral if the EFSF guarantees the loans. The likely scenario is that the bailout will now be likely seen as a selective default by agencies. Private bond holders will be involved for the first time to contribute to a target of €37bn in addition to the new €109bn bailout fund.

A sigh of relief? For the time being, yes. The key is that a solution has been found to satisfy the parties involved and the idea being that until Greece is able to financially stand on its own two feet again, it will be supported by Europe. There will be relief also felt by Ireland and Portugal as well as Greece as the rate in which they have to pay back their own bailout fund will be cut to around 3.5% which were previously around 5.5%.

Greece still has a long way to go and most likely will still have a debt to GDP ratio that will be unsustainable and will have to be addressed again in the future. At least for now there is a light at the end of the tunnel although there could be some delay in getting there.

CFD trading and spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. These products are only intended for people who are over 18.

US Debt Ceiling and its Impact on FX and Stock Markets

The US Federal Government spent more than it earned virtually from its inception.  The first recorded deficit budget that had to be financed by a loan was that of January 1791.

Since then, government spending has consistently been more than government income, although there were relatively short periods during which income exceeded expenditure. 

When the government spends more than it earns, it has to borrow the difference.  In the US, this is done through the issue of Treasury Bills.  Since the 1960s, the percentage of US Treasury Bills held by foreign countries has been steadily increasing.  At the moment the biggest buyers of US Treasury Bills are China, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Ceiling

Article 1 Section 8 of the US Constitution has put Congress in charge of managing public debt.  Initially Congress had to authorise every issue of Treasury bills separately, but in 1917 it decided to simply implement a debt ceiling.  As long as Government debt does not exceed this limit, approval from Congress is not necessary.

US Government Debt Crisis

Over the years US deficit spending, often as the result of wars such as the American Civil War, WWI, WW2 and lately the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, has steadily pushed up the level of Government debt in that country.

When this debt level reaches a point where it approaches the debt ceiling, Congress has to authorise an increase in the ceiling.  President Obama is now ( July 2011) asking for a $2 trillion increase in this ceiling, which will only be sufficient to ensure the US Government can keep on functioning until the end of 2012.

When the politicians controlling the US Congress cannot come to a decision about increasing the debt ceiling, it raises the risk of the US Government being unable to meet its obligations.  In this case, welfare payments or other Government programmes might have to be stopped.

Short Term Effects on FX and Stock Markets

When the US Government ends up in a position where its lending approaches the debt ceiling, it can only roll over existing debt – it cannot issue new Treasury bills.  What happens next is usually that the demand for these bills exceeds supply, causing interest rates on them to drop.  

As government expenditure comes closer to the debt ceiling, and fears of an impasse start to grow more intense, the stock markets are often negatively affected – unless there are of course other factors working in mitigation of this.

Such a situation also puts downward pressure on the US dollar, which could once again be mitigated by other factors.

Relief

Once the politicians agree on increasing the debt ceiling, the stock markets and USD FX markets normally react favourably – even though this might be short-lived.  Interest rates on Treasury bills usually start increasing again.

Exploiting the Situation

An astute trader could cash in on this situation by going long on the USD or a stock index such as the S&P 500 before an agreement on the debt ceiling is reached.  There are, however, risks involved: A prolonged stalemate could have unforeseen consequences that might send markets into a downward spiral from which they could only emerge after a prolonged period of time.

Spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk and you can lose more than your initial deposit so you should ensure these trading products meet your investment objectives and if necessary seek independent advice.